Thai economy expected to grow 3% next year, finance ministry says

BANGKOK :Thailand’s economy is expected to grow 3 per cent in 2025, picking up pace from this year as activity is supported by private consumption, exports, investment and tourism, the finance ministry said on Thursday.
Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy is seen growing 2.7 per cent this year, said the ministry, maintaining a previous forecast for a solid increase from 2023’s subdued 1.9 per cent expansion.
The forecasts come two weeks after the Bank of Thailand unexpectedly cut interest rates, something the government had been calling for all year as needed to support its expansionary fiscal policy and spark economic activity.
“Monetary policy must play a part in economic expansion,” Pornchai Thiraveja, head of the finance ministry’s fiscal policy office, told a news conference.
“There is limited fiscal space … to grow at 3.5 per cent we must consider quasi-fiscal measures”, he said when asked what was needed to exceed 2025 growth forecast.
The ministry said annual GDP growth in the third quarter was expected to come in below 3 per cent, but would accelerate to above 4 per cent in the final quarter of 2024.
The strength of the baht against the dollar this year this year has raised concern about the impact on the competitiveness of exports and tourism. The ministry saw the baht averaging between 34.8 and 35.4 per dollar this year, and between 32.7 and 33.1 per dollar next year.
Tourist arrivals are expected to reach 36 million this year and then 39 million in 2025, close the record of nearly 40 million visitors set in 2019.Exports this year were seen growing 2.9 per cent, stronger than a previous forecast of 2.7 per cent, and then 3.1 per cent in 2025.
Earlier this week, the Finance Ministry and BOT agreed to maintain the current inflation target of 1 per cent to 3 per cent for next year